Most business owners and senior managers I know are having the odd sleepless night at the moment, which is not really a surprise when you consider the number of companies already in distress in this country and the much publicised demise of major institutions in the US and UK … not to mention our own decimated share market, (read super funds), and deflated property prices.
The major source of this sleep deprivation usually relates to negative thoughts of the now infamous ‘black swan’ type, i.e. unexpectedly suffering something (usually a really bad thing) no-one could have reasonably foreseen occurring.
The fact that business leaders are having these thoughts is not a bad thing insofar that scanning the economic horizon is an integral part of the general management role. That they are losing sleep over events they have no direct control is of concern, particularly if it is on-going and if it will ultimately adversely impact the quality of day-to-day decision making.
My suggestion is that company management and relevant staff should start ‘scenario building’ without delay, and I’m not talking about full scale planning or modelling; more along the lines of a couple of in-house workshops of several hours at most.
At its most positive the process will elevate some good business ideas, which may have been overlooked in more prosperous times, and will strengthen the business by increasing sales or lowering costs.
Most probably the process will identify the critical drivers of the business (hint: follow the revenue and/or cost lines) and enable all parties involved to focus their attention on those parts of the business essential for survival in these uncertain economic times.
But, perhaps paradoxically, it is addressing the ‘worst case’ scenario which has the most potential to help restore everyone’s healthy sleep patterns.
Many, many years ago a veteran businessman and ex-POW said to me in similarly financially stressing times, “At least they won’t take you out in the morning and shoot you!”
No doubt his observation would not be considered politically correct these days but it was the hardened voice of experience, a great mood breaker and certainly got a laugh from me.
And it neatly underlines the fact that if you consider the very worst possible outcomes and confront them, you quickly realise they are not likely to happen, but even if they did … life would go on. | 
